Expectations are high for the Texas Longhorns in 2019. Will they dethrone Oklahoma and win their first Big XII championship since 2009? Is there any way Sam Ehlinger can lead Texas into its first College Football Playoff appearance? Or will the curse of the “B” word return to the forty acres?
This article is the third of a three part series previewing the Texas Longhorns 2019 football season. This part will focus on predictions for the Longhorns.
Season Predictions
I am not a believer in game-by-game predictions for the whole season. The game of football is way to dynamic to pretend to know what a team will look like in November. Because of this I will separate every game in Texas’ schedule into three tiers: “Gimme”, “Watch Your Back”, and “Program Makers” then I will predict their record in each tier. For example if Texas has five “Be Careful” games, I may predict them going 4-1 in said games.
“Gimme” Games
In recent memory, Texas has been known to play up or down to its competition. If the Longhorns want to take the next step in being a contending program, they have to dominate teams that just aren’t up to par.
Texas has three “Gimme” Games this year. September 14 vs Rice, September 21 vs Oklahoma State, and October 19 vs Kansas. Before you try to tell me OSU beat Texas last year and “Watch out for Kansas,” lets be realistic here. Oklahoma State has had Texas’ number in recent years, but coming into the season the Cowboys aren’t even sure who their starting quarterback really is. If Les Miles is able to help the Jayhawks turn a corner, it won’t be for at least another couple years, and Rice… well, they’re a great academic school.
Texas’ record in 2019 “Gimme” Games: 3-0
They are called “Gimme” for a reason.
“Watch Your Back” Games
A majority of Texas’ schedule can be classified as “Watch Your Back” games. Coming into the season ranked 10 in the AP Poll, the expectations are high for the Longhorns. Expect Texas to be favored in most of their games this year. That being said the Big XII is notorious for eating themselves alive, meaning almost nobody can get out without at least one conference loss. Texas’ “Watch Your Back” games are:
August 31 vs LA Tech: due to their high powered offense and Tom Herman’s ‘Week One Curse’.
October 5 at West Virginia: Mountaineer Field is a tough place to play.
October 26 at TCU: again, tough place to play and TCU is a good team that was severely injured last season. Look for Gary Patterson’s squad to bounce back in 2019.
November 9 vs Kansas State: I thought about putting this as a “Gimme” game, but due to the nature of Kansas State’s play, if they are able to slow the game down and make a few big plays K-State could pull off a huge upset.
November 23 at Baylor: The Bears are finally starting to pull out of the muck left behind by Art Briles (we think).
Texas’ record in 2019 “Watch Your Back” Games: 5-0
This is a new era of Texas football. After stumbling out of the blocks the past two years, Herman’s squad will win their week one matchup and will handle the teams they should handle. If Texas wants a shot at the CFP, they have to not play down to their competition and be focused headed into each and every game.
“Program Maker” Games
There are some games on the schedule that are larger than the season they occur in. These games will set the tone for the rest of the season, recruiting, nationwide buzz amongst fans and most importantly good marks for the CFP Selection Committee.
September 7 vs LSU: This is the biggest game for the Longhorns in a very long time. If the south end zone seating hadn’t been demolished this off-season I would expect this game to break the Darrell K. Royal attendance record set in 2018 against USC (103,507). Regardless, the scene in Austin, Texas September 7 is going to be incredible. With the adjustments Athletic Director Chris Del Conte has made, the Longhorns have a bona fide home field advantage. In a clash of two blue bloods on the rise out of the depths of mediocrity, a win here could propel either program back to their former glory, while a loss could be a huge stumbling block on the path to contention.
October 12 vs Oklahoma: Duh. The Red River Showdown is a coin flip every year. Regardless of the possible talent discrepancies between the teams any given year (see 2015) it is anybody’s game. The only thing guaranteed the second weekend in October is that half of the stadium will go home disappointed.
November 16 at Iowa State: Really? Iowa State? Matt Campbell has led the Cyclones to two consecutive 8 win seasons, going to a bowl game both times. Iowa State even had an outside shot of making the Big XII Championship game late in the 2018 season. Another reason this game will be big for Texas: it’s in Ames, Iowa. The Cyclones are notorious for pulling off unprecedented upsets on their home field. Beating Texas is nowhere near out-of-the-question for Campbell’s team, but I’m sure they would love to storm the field November 16.
November 29 vs Texas Tech: This game would be in the “Watch Your Back” category if it was any other week. The last time the Red Raiders were in Austin was the day after Thanksgiving 2017 when Tech surprised Herman and the Longhorns with a 27-23 come-from-behind victory. Texas has a good chance of coming into this game with one or no losses. If this is the case, the Tech game will be critical to their hopes of making the CFP. The Longhorns have to show that they are a team capable of putting distractions aside and taking care of the task at hand. If Texas looses three games before this time, disregard.
Texas’ record in 2019 “Program Maker” Games: 3-1
There is no reason to believe Texas won’t go to the Big XII Championship game in 2019. The way Texas played against Georgia in the 2018 Sugar Bowl showed glimpses of a team ready to make a push to the CFP for the first time. If the Longhorns can make it through the 2019 regular season with only one loss, they will control their own destiny when talking about the CFP.
Postseason Predictions:
I think Texas wins the Big XII for the first time in ten years over Oklahoma.
So, if you are keeping track, that means Texas would be a one loss conference champion. Unless something crazy happens, I predict the Texas Longhorns will make their first CFP appearance in 2019. From there, it all depends on the match-ups, BUT that is not what you came here to hear. Going against everything I said at the beginning of the article, I am forced to predict individual games/opponents. I think Texas would come in as the 4 seed behind #1 Clemson, #2 Alabama, and #3 [Insert B1G champion here]. That puts the Longhorns in a tough matchup against the soon-to-be-dynasty that is the Clemson Tigers where they lose in a close one.
While Texas certainly has the talent and coaching to win the National Championship, I don’t think it is quite their time. But, look out for Texas to be in the Playoff much more consistently in the next 5-10 years.